Before we take a look at the statistics, the team news for England is that the only change to the squad is Monty Panesar or Ravi Bopari meaning Johnathan Trott is likely to make his debut. Flintoff and Anderson are expected to be fit. Australia opted to go for an all seam attack at Leeds and their main decision would be who to omit should Nathan Hauritz return.

The Venue, The Oval

England have played 10 test matches at The Oval in the last decade winning 5, drawing 3 and losing 2. The 2005 Ashes test at this venue was drawn with played called off as Australia had just started their 2nd innings needing 342 for victory. The draw clinched the Ashes for England and sparked wild celebrations. Ian Bell failed to score in both innings which will perhaps be playing on his mind should he be selected for this decider whilst Freddie Flintoff was named man of the match after taking 5 Aussie wickets in their 1st innings.

The last test match on this ground saw England beat South Africa last year though the Proteas had already clinched the series. In 2007 England and India played out a draw after India had posted 664 in their first innings which included a century from Anil Kumble. That tells you plenty about the nature of the wicket here when conditions are good and it presents a dilemma for England and the ground staff concerning what type of wicket is prepared this year. England have to win to get the Ashes back and a batsman’s paradise may not be the way to go with England’s spinners hardly troubling the Aussies at Cardiff when the seamers battled on a good batting track.

The Weather

The English summer has already had a significant role in this series after rain decimated the 3rd test so keep an eye on the forecast .

Series Statistics

For those who like to look at the stats perhaps with a view to a punt in the top bat and top bowler markets for each innings, here is an update.

Most Runs: Australia have 5 of the top 6 run makers in the series with Michael Clarke out in front with 445. Marcus North (349) and Ponting (311) also feature prominently. Andrew Strauss (344) is easily England’s leading run scorer.

Most Wickets: Ben Hilfenhaus leads the way with 18 wickets but Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle had a good 4th test and both have 16 each. GreatOdds make Hilfenhaus odds on at 4/5 to finish top Aussie series bowler but an inspired performance from Johnson 9/4 or Siddle 7/2 could still see them take over. The fortunes of Stuart Broad also turned at Leeds and he has joined James Anderson as England’s leading wicket taker, the pair both having 12 victims to date. GreatOdds make Anderson slight favourite to finish as England’s leading taker. Swann has been a disappointment with just 6 wickets all series.
 
Verdict

Despite the absence of Flintoff at Leeds, England were hardly in the game and it will need some turnaround in form for the series to take another twist. England have to force the issue, a draw will see Australia retain The Ashes.

Live Cricket Score

First some team news, keep an eye on CricketPulse in the run up to the match, at the time of writing Brett Lee is a possibility for Australia and once again there will be speculation about Andrew Flintoff’s participation for England. If Flintoff is fit, I’d expect England to be unchanged, if Freddie can’t make it, Steve Harmison is the likely replacement. Australia may look to shake up their bowling attack with Peter Siddle’s place potentially up for grabs to Lee or even Stuart Clark. Michael Clarke is reportedly battling with a stomach strain.

The Venue: Headingley, Leeds

England were trounced by the Proteas on their last visit to Leeds just over 12 months ago. Graeme Smith put England in and the decision paid dividends as England lasted just 53 overs, scoring 203 in the process. A mammoth reply of 522 set up a 10 wicket win for South Africa.

Australia’s last visit here came back in 2001 and they were beaten by 6 wickets as Mark Butcher cracked 173 as England successfully chased 315 in the 4th innings. If you go back a bit further in Headingley Ashes history to 1981 you will find one of the most amazing turnarounds in test match cricket. England, following on 227 runs behind, emerged victorious by 18 runs. Those were the days of Ian Botham and Bob Willis, great days they were.

Of the 8 test matches played here in the last 10 years, England have won 5 and lost 3 and note there has not been one single draw.  The minimum winning margin in that decade was the 6 wicket win in Mark Butcher’s test match.

I’ve long been of the opinion that the draw starts way to short in test matches, the glut of ODI’s and now T20’s in the modern game has resulted in players scoring quickly in the 5 day format and the draw is worth taking on. The problem with that theory in England is you are not only taking on one of the teams but also the weather.

Verdict:

If the weather does not destroy the test match, I think we can get a result. I thought the same at Edgbaston and the chances are that even 4 full days would have produced a winner. Unfortunately the rain destroyed nearly all day 1 and all of day 3 and the draw was always likely.

I’ll keep an eye on the forecast and if it looks like the weather will behave, I’m going to side with the Aussies to square the series and set up a decider.

After Leeds the test series concludes at The Oval. Remember to join us for previews of the all the matches on CricBytes.

Bell is set to replace Kevin Pietersen in the side that won the second Test against Australia at Lord’s by 115 runs to go 1-0 up in the series after the South Africa born batsman was ruled out of the remainder of the Ashes series with an Achilles injury.

Fast bowler Stephen Harmison and left-arm spinner Monty Panesar have also been added to the XI that played at Lord’s.

England selection chief Geoff Miller said: “The performance of the team at Lord’s was outstanding and a convincing win was well deserved.

“We have obviously had to make a change to the side following Kevin Pietersen’s unavailability and we wish Kevin the best with his rehabilitation and look forward to his return to the England team in due course.

“Kevin’s injury has presented an opportunity for Ian Bell who we know is a top-class batsmen with an excellent international record for England.

“Ian will be looking to make the most of his return to the side during an Ashes series and while we have a strong idea of where he will bat we won’t be disclosing the final line-up of the side until the toss on Thursday.”

Miller also said he was confident of the fitness of Andrew Flintoff, the fast-bowling all-rounder who led England’s attack at Lord’s despite a troublesome knee injury.

“Andrew Flintoff’s performance at Lord’s was truly memorable and we are hopeful he can take his place in the side for the third Test as he continues to manage his knee injury,” said Miller.

“Andrew and the medical staff are quite bullish about his prospects of playing but we’ll continue to monitor his progress in the days leading up to Thursday.”

Squad: Andrew Strauss (capt), Alastair Cook, Ravi Bopara, Ian Bell, Paul Collingwood, Matthew Prior (wkt), Andrew Flintoff, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, James Anderson, Graham Onions, Stephen Harmison, Monty Panesar.

Flintoff, who will retire after the series, is battling a knee injury while Pietersen has been ruled out of the series after he underwent a surgery on his Achilles tendon. Bell’s inclusion in the eleven is likely to be the only change in the team that is 1-0 up in the series.

“Kevin’s injury has presented an opportunity for Ian Bell. The performance of the team at Lord’s was outstanding and a convincing win was well deserved. We have obviously had to make a change to the side following Kevin Pietersen’s unavailability and we wish Kevin the best with his rehabilitation and look forward to his return to the England team in due course,” said national selector Geoff Miller.

“But we know Ian Bell is a top-class batsmen with an excellent international record for England. Ian will be looking to make the most of his return to the side during an Ashes series and while we have a strong idea of where he will bat we won’t be disclosing the final line-up of the side until the toss on Thursday,” he added.

Bell will make a comeback in the side on his home ground after being dropped after the first Test in West Indies. For Bell it will be fresh challenge after having failed in the 10 Ashes Tests during which he scored just 502 runs.

Miller hoped that Flintoff will be fit in time for the third Test.

“Andrew Flintoff’s performance at Lord’s was truly memorable and we are hopeful he can take his place in the side for the third Test as he continues to manage his knee injury,” Miller said.

“Andrew and the medical staff are quite bullish about his prospects of playing but we’ll continue to monitor his progress in the days leading up to Thursday. Steve Harmison and Monty Panesar both provide us with cover and exciting options within the bowling attack,” he said.

The squad: Andrew Strauss (captain), Alistair Cook, Ravi Bopara, Ian Bell, Paul Collingwood, Matt Prior (wicketkeeper), Andrew Flintoff, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, James Anderson, Graeme Onions, Steve Harmison and Monty Panesar.

Live Cricket Score

The Venue, Edgbaston, Birmingham:

England will have everlasting memories of the Ashes test that was staged here in 2005. It was one of the most trilling test matches in the history or the game.

Entering the 4th day, the game looked as good as over as Australia needed 107 runs to win and had just 2 wickets remaining. The Australian tail refused to surrender and their last wicket pair had taken them to just 2 runs short of victory when Steve Harmison had Michael Kasprowicz caught behind. The win levelled the series for England and they went on to take the Ashes.

The previous test match on this ground saw the Proteas beat England by 5 wickets in July last year.

Of the 8 test matches England have played at Edgbaston since 2000, there has been only 1 draw. That came in 2003 against the Proteas when both sides scored heavily in their first innings and the whole of the 2nd day’s play was lost to rain.

For the Birmingham weather forecast click here, keep an eye on it, if the weather looks OK, I think we will get a result.

Team News:

England’s team news centres round the fitness of Pietersen and Flintoff. Pietersen is clearly troubled by his lingering Achilles tendon injury and must be a concern. Flintoff is also battling but the rest between Lords, when he really gave everything and the kitchen sink with a man of the match display, must give him every chance.

Australia also have concerns and not just on the injury front. News of Brett Lee’s availability will be eagerly awaited after he missed the first 2 tests. With Mitchell Johnson battling for line and length, a return for Lee would help ease the burden on a man who was overwhelming favourite to be leading Australian wicket taker in the series. Despite spraying the ball wide of both sides of the wicket on a regular basis, Johnson still has 8 wickets in the series and I don’t think the Aussies will want to ditch him yet. A practice match against Northants gives Johnson another chance to address his problems.

Series Stats:

Top bat and bowler markets are proving popular with punters so let’s take a look at the leading run getters and wicket takers in the series so far.

Most runs – Strauss leads the way with his 161 at Lords contributing heavily to overall total of 240. Collingwood is the only Englishman in the top 6, he lies in 4th place with 208.

Brad Haddin is the surprise name at the top of the Australian run scoring charts, his 229 is 9 runs more than Michael Clarke has notched so far. To me, Clarke has looked in superb touch which bodes well for our pre series pick for top Australian batsmen. Ponting (190) and Katich (176) are also up there thanks to their performances at Cardiff in the 1st test.

Most Wickets – The Australians also lead the way here with Hauritz and Hilfenhaus with 9 wickets a piece. The wayward Johnson still has 8 wickets which to me, should save him from the axe despite a poor economy rate of 4.00 per over after 2 test matches. Flintoff, with a 5 wicket haul in the 2nd innings at Lords has 7 in total, 1 more than James Andersen.

Live Cricket Score

The majority of people reading this preview would not have been born when England last beat Australia in a test match at Lords.  The majority of people who saw the England tail enders Monty Panesar and Jimmy Anderson take England to a draw in the first test will still be pinching themselves. That’s what they did though and its all square with 4 to play.

England’s bowling was a major let down at Cardiff, they managed to take just 6 Australian wickets in 181 overs with the 5 front line bowlers all conceding over 100 runs. Flintoff looked dangerous at times but the Australian batsmen were successful where England’s batting failed – they turned starts into big scores and took control of the test match. With 4 centurions (Ponting, Katich, Haddin and North) and an 83 from Michael Clarke, England need to have a serious think about how, and who, can help them take 20 wickets in a test match to turn things in their favour.

The Venue, Lords:

Back in 2005, Australia were comfortable winners against England. It was a low scoring test match with Australia making just 190 after winning the toss and electing to bat. Harmison was chief destroyer with 5 wickets. England couldn’t capitalise though and they were dismissed for just 155 in 48 overs as McGrath, Lee and Warne ripped through the batting order. Australia turned up the pressure from then on; Michael Clarke made 91 in a 2nd innings total of 384 leaving England with a mountain to climb. It never looked likely and so it proved as England were all out for 180 and Australia ran out winners by 239 runs. It was the first match in the 2005 series, a series which Australia went onto lose.

Following the 2005 Ashes Test, Lords witnessed England play out 6 consecutive drawn test matches against Sri Lanka, Pakistan, West Indies, India, New Zealand and South Africa. The most recent Lord’s test match took place earlier this year when England broke the sequence of drawn games with a comprehensive 10 wicket win over a rather dispirited looking West Indies side.

With the draw always starting a pretty shot price in test matches, let’s take a closer look at the circumstances which led to that series of drawn matches.

England v Sri Lanka 2006 – England declared at 551/6 and looked to be in control after dismissing Sri Lanka for just 192. Think again, Sri Lanka following on, batted out the remainder of the test to reach 537/9 before bad light ended play on the 5th day. In all, just short of 400 overs were bowled.

England v Pakistan 2006 – England 1st innings, 528/9 declared, Pakistan 1st innings 445. England 2nd innings 296/8 declared, Pakistan 2nd innings 214/4. In all 435 overs were bowled.

England v West Indies 2007 – England 1st innings 553/5 declared, West Indies 1st innings 437. England 2nd innings 284/8 declared, West Indies 89/0. In all, 346 overs were bowled as rain and bad light halted proceedings.

England v India 2007 – England 1st innings 298, India 201. England 2nd innings 282, India 2nd innings 282/9 (target 380). In all 343 overs were bowled as England were denied victory by rain.

England v New Zealand 2008 – Less than 290 overs were bowled as the weather once again spoilt the contest as play was halted midway through the 3rd innings of the match.

England v South Africa 2008 – England 1st innings 593/8 declared, SA 1st innings 247,. SA following on, 393/3. Over 400 overs were bowled but t was a tremendous 2nd innings from the Proteas which was responsible for the draw rather than the weather.

Looking at the above data, big 1st innings totals are commonplace at Lords for whoever wins the toss and it isn’t always bad weather which influences the outcome. After both England and Australia batted well in their 1st innings of the opening test match in Cardiff, we could well see another huge first innings total.

Team News:

England are likely to ditch the twin spin option which failed at Cardiff. Monty Panesar will probably make way from the starting XI. Graham Onions (who took 7 wickets here against the West Indies) or Steve Harmison would be the most likely replacement. There is also a doubt over Andrew Flintoff who a has knee problem

Squad: A Strauss (capt), J Anderson, I Bell, R Bopara, S Broad, P Collingwood, A Cook, A Flintoff, S Harmison, G Onions, M Panesar, K Pietersen, M Prior (wkt), G Swann

Australia probable line up: 

With Brett Lee already ruled out whilst at least the 3rd test, barring any further injury problems, Australia are highly likely to go into the test unchanged.

Squad: Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke, Brad Haddin, Nathan Hauritz, Ben Hilfenhaus, Phillip Hughes, Michael Hussey, Mitchell Johnson, Simon Katich, Marcus North, Peter Siddle.

McGrath made the prediction to The Australian newspaper, repeating the famous forecast he made for the 2005 series in England … which the hosts won 2-1 against expectations and after losing the series-opening match. That was England’s first Ashes series win since Australia reclaimed the old urn under Allan Border in 1989.

Though few gamblers would back an Australian clean sweep this year, McGrath said he is not being silly and his forecast is solidly based.

“My prediction is it will be 5-0 to Australia,” McGrath said. “I’ve got total confidence in the boys, especially watching the way they played in South Africa in the last Test series.

“I thought that would have given them a lot of confidence. They showed what they can do and the huge potential that they’ve got.

“If they can do the same here and maybe even improve in one or two areas they will do really well and probably win 5-0.”

McGrath, who retired two years ago with 563 Test wickets, has been working with Australia’s fast bowlers ahead of the Ashes series.

He was among the exodus of seasoned stars to retire from Test cricket after Australia reclaimed the Ashes 5-0 on home soil in 2006/07.

The Venue

We have no test match history to guide us as far as Sophia Gardens is concerned. The ground is home to Glamorgan and is a surprising choice to host an Ashes test match. England captain Andrew Strauss is on record as saying both teams do not know what to expect which all makes for an intriguing opening to the series.

Let’s take a look at the squads:

England Squad: Andrew Strauss, Alistair Cook, Ravi Bopara, Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood, Matt Prior, Andrew Flintoff, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, James Anderson, Monty Panesar, Ian Bell, Graham Onions.

England resisted the temptation to recall Steve Harmison and Graham Onions retains his place in the squad. With Panesar and Swann, England have the option to play 2 spinners if hey conditions will suit. Of the 13 man squad Ian Bell and one of either Onions or Panesar are most likely to miss out.

Australia Squad: Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke, Stuart Clark, Brad Haddin, Nathan Hauritz, Ben Hilfenhaus, Phillip Hughes, Michael Hussey, Mitchell Johnson, Simon Katich, Brett Lee, Graham Manou, Andrew McDonald, Marcus North, Peter Siddle, Shane Watson.

Update: Brett Lee is an injury doubt for Australia and may miss the first test

The Aussies have just completed a warm up game against an England Lions side. The match ended in a draw and Brett Lee looked awesome when taking 6 wickets in the first innings and Marcus North starred with the 191 not out with the bat. Ponting struggled and opener Phillip Hughes looked vulnerable to the short pitched deliveries, more of which will be served up to him in the 1st test. All in all though, the warm up match is about players getting into shape for Wednesday and I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on it.

The key men:

Strauss was 100% correct when he said all XI need to contribute and there can be no over-reliance on a couple of star players. However there are still some “ifs and buts” that stand out more than others.

Philip Hughes – England’s bowlers will be looking to target the Australian opener in his first Ashes series. Hughes can expect plenty of short deliveries and how he handles it will be a big factor.

Andrew Flintoff – there is no doubt that if he is 100% fit and firing after his injury problems, Flintoff will be a major handful for the Australian batsmen. The “if” is the key word.

The Captains: Ponting will be under more pressure than Strauss, his own recent form has been poor and on the back of a dismal ICC T20 showing, pressure will soon mount if Australia find themselves on the back foot early on.

After Cardiff, there will also be tests at Lords, Edgbaston and Headingley before we finish up at the Oval.

The injury-prone Watson was ruled out of Australia’s Ashes tour opener against Sussex at Hove, starting on Wednesday, with what appeared to be a knee problem and his setback led to concerns that a 17th player would have to be summoned to England as cover.
But following a scan on Tuesday, Kountouris said: “Shane Watson had a scan on his left knee yesterday and it has confirmed a low grade strain of one of his quadriceps muscle.

“We expect his injury should resolve fairly quickly, his return to play will be guided by progress made in the next few days.”

Earlier, Australia captain Ricky Ponting admitted calling up an extra player was a possibility.

“We might have to do that,” he said. “That’s what some of the discussion is about, particularly if we happen to have, for an unknown reason, a batter happen to hurt themselves in this game then we could be a little bit short.”

Victoria’s Brad Hodge would be among those in line if Australia felt they had to summon an extra player.

But Ponting hopes Watson will be fit to play in the first Test at Cardiff starting on July 8 should any of the leading top six batsmen be ruled out.

“It’s not a major thing at the moment and we’re hoping it’s not anything major that will show up on the scan,” Ponting said.

“Hopefully within a couple of days he’s right to start back up and work up on his bowling again.

“For him it’s obviously a setback. He’s disappointed that he wasn’t available for selection in this game.

“I don’t know if it harms his chances even more for the first Test match but there’s an opportunity that’s slipped out of his grasp over the next four days.”

Australia have one more match against the England Lions, the national A side, at Worcester, from July 1-4 before they begin the defence of the Ashes, which they won 5-0 on home soil in 2006-07.

Watson, 28, has played just eight Tests in a career blighted by injuries, most recently a stress fracture in his back which was diagnosed during last year’s Boxing Day Test in Melbourne.